China's Chemical Products and Shipping Market Trend Analysis Report (August 2025 Edition)

Current macroeconomic background

The Chinese economy is still undergoing a cyclical adjustment, with prices of some industrial products remaining at historically low levels. However, with the continued implementation of macroeconomic control policies, domestic and foreign demand is gradually recovering, and the economy is showing signs of a moderate recovery. XRD Chemical anticipates that industrial product prices will see a slight increase in the coming period as overall economic conditions improve.

Price trends of major chemical products

1. Baking Soda Price Analysis:
   Currently, baking soda prices are at a historical low. According to Sino-Foreign Exchange data, the average market price of baking soda on August 22, 2025, was 1,249.2 yuan/ton, down 0.02% from the beginning of the week and 34.7% from the same period last year. The ex-factory price in Henan Province is approximately 1,270 yuan/ton, while in Shandong Province it is between 1,200 and 1,300 yuan/ton. The Sino-Foreign Exchange Baking Soda Index is 82.91, a new low for the cycle and down 64.84% from its historical high in November 2021.
   Short-term Outlook : Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food industries are primarily purchasing on demand, and demand remains positive. Baking soda prices are expected to continue to fluctuate, with a slight rebound possible after bottoming out as the economy recovers.
2. Calcium chloride price analysis:
   Calcium chloride prices vary greatly depending on the specifications. Data on August 24, 2025 shows:
   • The ex-factory price of 74% calcium chloride flakes is about 850 yuan/ton (in Henan Province)
   • The market price of 94% white pellets calcium chloride is about 2,200 yuan/ton (Zhengzhou, Henan)
   • The ex-factory price of 74% flaky calcium chloride dihydrate is about 800 yuan/ton.
     Short-term outlook : Market demand is stable, and the price of calcium chloride is expected to continue to run at the bottom, but there is limited room for further decline.

Table: Prices of major chemical products (August 2025)

Analysis and Outlook of Ocean Freight Fluctuations

The global container shipping market continues to be under pressure. According to Drewry's World Containerized Freight Index (WCI), global container freight rates fell 3% month-over-month to $2,350 per FEU on August 14, 2025. The NCFI index published by the Ningbo Shipping Exchange also fell 0.1% to 1,052.5 points.

Freight rate changes on major shipping routes (as of August 21, 2025):

• North American routes: Capacity supply exceeds demand, the freight rate index for the US East Coast route fell by 5.2%, and the US West Coast route fell by 5.9%.
• European routes: Freight index fell 5.5%
• Mediterranean routes: Eastern Mediterranean rose by 0.4%, while Western Mediterranean fell by 3.8%
• South America West Coast route: Demand is stable, and the freight index rose by 14.7%
• Middle East routes: Freight index rose 30.2%

Short-term Outlook :
Shipping companies are adjusting capacity by suspending sailings (a 7% cancellation rate is expected on major routes in weeks 34-38), but the effect is limited. Freight rates are currently relatively reasonable, but are likely to fluctuate over the next three months, with a potential downside of $500-1,000 per FEU. Freight rates on South American routes are likely to remain relatively strong due to stable demand.

Terminal market demand situation - taking South America as an example

The South American market has experienced rapid economic growth in recent years, leading to a steady increase in demand for chemical products. Demand on the westbound South American route has been particularly stable, with shipping companies managing voyages to maintain a balance between supply and demand, driving up freight rates. Demand for chemical products in the South American market is expected to continue to grow over the next three months.

Comprehensive outlook for the next three months

• Product price : There is limited room for further decline in the FOB prices of baking soda and calcium chloride, and it is expected that there may be a slight rebound after bottoming out.
• Ocean freight : Global freight rates are under overall pressure, but specific routes such as South America may remain strong; it is expected that overall freight rates will still have room for fluctuation of US$500-1000/FEU.
• Market demand : Demand in the South American market has grown steadily, becoming an important support for exports; domestic downstream industries purchase on demand, and demand is stable.

suggestion

1. Procurement and inventory management : Current product prices are low. XRD Chemical believes that it is appropriate to replenish inventory when prices are low, but inventory levels need to be controlled to avoid risks.
2. Transportation strategy : Pay close attention to shipping market trends, especially freight rate fluctuations on South American routes; consider diversified transportation arrangements to reduce costs.
3. Market expansion : Seize growth opportunities in the South American market, strengthen customer relationships, and increase market share.
4. Risk control : Pay attention to the potential impact of macroeconomic policy changes and unexpected events (such as weather and geopolitics) on the supply chain.